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Winner
Donald J. Trump wins Pennsylvania.
Race called by The Associated Press.
Latest results from Nov. 22
race called
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percent Pct.% | Chart showing percent | Electoral votes Electoral votes E.V. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald J. TrumpD. TrumpTrump | Republican Rep. | 3,542,701 | +50.4% 50.4% | 19 | |
| Kamala HarrisK. HarrisHarris | Democrat Dem. | 3,421,247 | +48.7% 48.7% | No electoral votes— | |
| Total reported | 7,031,770 | ||||
Nearly all of the estimated vote total has been reported.
Dem.
Harris
Rep.
Trump
More than 7 million votes reported
Estimated votes remaining
Mapping the results and our estimate of what remains
Votes reported
Circles show margin for leading candidate in the ballots counted so far.
leader
Trump
Harris
Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is ahead.
Estimated margin of remaining votes
Circles show our estimate for which candidate leads in the remaining votes.
We stopped updating these forecasts at 5:45 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 6, after the election was called for Donald Trump. This map will no longer be updated.
Circles show margin for leading candidate in the ballots counted so far.
leader
Trump
Harris
Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is ahead.
| County | Margin | Votes | Percent of votes in % In |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | Harris +59 | 720,572 | >95% |
| Allegheny | Harris +20 | 719,384 | >95% |
| Montgomery | Harris +23 | 520,906 | >95% |
| Bucks | Trump +0.07 | 401,113 | >95% |
| Delaware | Harris +24 | 328,172 | >95% |
| Chester | Harris +14 | 324,895 | >95% |
| Lancaster | Trump +16 | 289,258 | >95% |
| York | Trump +25 | 249,194 | >95% |
| Westmoreland | Trump +28 | 211,450 | >95% |
| Berks | Trump +12 | 209,812 | >95% |
| Lehigh | Harris +3 | 189,810 | >95% |
| Northampton | Trump +1.9 | 177,905 | >95% |
| Luzerne | Trump +19 | 156,043 | >95% |
| Dauphin | Harris +6 | 149,526 | >95% |
| Cumberland | Trump +9 | 148,396 | >95% |
| Erie | Trump +1 | 137,571 | >95% |
| Washington | Trump +26 | 121,617 | >95% |
| Butler | Trump +32 | 121,440 | >95% |
| Lackawanna | Harris +3 | 116,590 | >95% |
| Beaver | Trump +21 | 94,839 | >95% |
| Monroe | Trump +0.79 | 85,549 | >95% |
| Franklin | Trump +43 | 83,884 | >95% |
| Centre | Harris +3 | 80,782 | >95% |
| Lebanon | Trump +32 | 73,692 | >95% |
| Schuylkill | Trump +42 | 73,184 | >95% |
| Cambria | Trump +40 | 71,136 | >95% |
| Blair | Trump +43 | 64,949 | >95% |
| Fayette | Trump +38 | 63,469 | >95% |
| Adams | Trump +34 | 60,650 | >95% |
| Lycoming | Trump +41 | 59,685 | >95% |
| Mercer | Trump +30 | 58,410 | >95% |
| Lawrence | Trump +34 | 47,110 | >95% |
| Northumberland | Trump +40 | 43,522 | >95% |
| Crawford | Trump +39 | 42,872 | >95% |
| Indiana | Trump +39 | 42,229 | >95% |
| Somerset | Trump +57 | 40,881 | >95% |
| Clearfield | Trump +52 | 40,430 | >95% |
| Armstrong | Trump +53 | 37,119 | >95% |
| Carbon | Trump +35 | 35,395 | >95% |
| Pike | Trump +24 | 34,950 | >95% |
| Columbia | Trump +31 | 32,600 | >95% |
| Bradford | Trump +48 | 31,192 | >95% |
| Wayne | Trump +37 | 29,444 | >95% |
| Bedford | Trump +69 | 28,160 | >95% |
| Venango | Trump +42 | 26,743 | >95% |
| Perry | Trump +49 | 25,725 | >95% |
| Huntingdon | Trump +53 | 23,156 | >95% |
| Jefferson | Trump +58 | 23,129 | >95% |
| Susquehanna | Trump +45 | 22,404 | >95% |
| Mifflin | Trump +56 | 22,071 | >95% |
| Tioga | Trump +52 | 21,587 | >95% |
| Union | Trump +23 | 21,187 | >95% |
| Warren | Trump +39 | 20,703 | >95% |
| Snyder | Trump +47 | 20,038 | >95% |
| Clarion | Trump +53 | 19,731 | >95% |
| McKean | Trump +47 | 19,682 | >95% |
| Clinton | Trump +41 | 18,522 | >95% |
| Greene | Trump +45 | 17,236 | >95% |
| Elk | Trump +47 | 17,153 | >95% |
| Wyoming | Trump +37 | 15,052 | >95% |
| Juniata | Trump +61 | 12,104 | >95% |
| Montour | Trump +21 | 9,908 | >95% |
| Potter | Trump +62 | 9,085 | >95% |
| Fulton | Trump +73 | 8,177 | >95% |
| Sullivan | Trump +47 | 3,721 | >95% |
| Forest | Trump +44 | 2,650 | >95% |
| Cameron | Trump +50 | 2,219 | >95% |
How votes compare with 2020
The map below shows how votes cast in this race compare with votes cast in the 2020 presidential election in the same area. Only areas that have reported almost all of their votes are shown.
Shift in margin
More Dem.
More Rep.
Compared with 2020 presidential vote in places that have reported almost all of their votes.
| County | Margin | Shift from 2020 presidentialShift from 2020 pres. | Votes | Percent of votes in % In |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | Harris +59 | 4.7 pts. 4.7 points more Republican | 720,572 | >95% |
| Allegheny | Harris +20 | 0.1 pts. 0.1 points more Republican | 719,384 | >95% |
| Montgomery | Harris +23 | 3.5 pts. 3.5 points more Republican | 520,906 | >95% |
| Bucks | Trump +0.07 | 4.4 pts. 4.4 points more Republican | 401,113 | >95% |
| Delaware | Harris +24 | 3.1 pts. 3.1 points more Republican | 328,172 | >95% |
| Chester | Harris +14 | 2.7 pts. 2.7 points more Republican | 324,895 | >95% |
| Lancaster | Trump +16 | 0.1 pts. 0.1 points more Republican | 289,258 | >95% |
| York | Trump +25 | 0.7 pts. 0.7 points more Republican | 249,194 | >95% |
| Westmoreland | Trump +28 | <0.1 pts. <0.1 points more Republican | 211,450 | >95% |
| Berks | Trump +12 | 4 pts. 4 points more Republican | 209,812 | >95% |
| Lehigh | Harris +3 | 4.9 pts. 4.9 points more Republican | 189,810 | >95% |
| Northampton | Trump +1.9 | 2.6 pts. 2.6 points more Republican | 177,905 | >95% |
| Luzerne | Trump +19 | 4.8 pts. 4.8 points more Republican | 156,043 | >95% |
| Dauphin | Harris +6 | 2.6 pts. 2.6 points more Republican | 149,526 | >95% |
| Cumberland | Trump +9 | 1.1 pts. 1.1 points more Democratic | 148,396 | >95% |
| Erie | Trump +1 | 2.1 pts. 2.1 points more Republican | 137,571 | >95% |
| Washington | Trump +26 | 2.7 pts. 2.7 points more Republican | 121,617 | >95% |
| Butler | Trump +32 | 0.3 pts. 0.3 points more Democratic | 121,440 | >95% |
| Lackawanna | Harris +3 | 5.6 pts. 5.6 points more Republican | 116,590 | >95% |
| Beaver | Trump +21 | 3 pts. 3 points more Republican | 94,839 | >95% |
| Monroe | Trump +0.79 | 7.1 pts. 7.1 points more Republican | 85,549 | >95% |
| Franklin | Trump +43 | 0.1 pts. 0.1 points more Democratic | 83,884 | >95% |
| Centre | Harris +3 | 1.9 pts. 1.9 points more Republican | 80,782 | >95% |
| Lebanon | Trump +32 | 0.1 pts. 0.1 points more Republican | 73,692 | >95% |
| Schuylkill | Trump +42 | 2.2 pts. 2.2 points more Republican | 73,184 | >95% |
| Cambria | Trump +40 | 2.3 pts. 2.3 points more Republican | 71,136 | >95% |
| Blair | Trump +43 | <0.1 pts. <0.1 points more Democratic | 64,949 | >95% |
| Fayette | Trump +38 | 4.5 pts. 4.5 points more Republican | 63,469 | >95% |
| Adams | Trump +34 | 0.5 pts. 0.5 points more Democratic | 60,650 | >95% |
| Lycoming | Trump +41 | 0.1 pts. 0.1 points more Republican | 59,685 | >95% |
| Mercer | Trump +30 | 4.1 pts. 4.1 points more Republican | 58,410 | >95% |
| Lawrence | Trump +34 | 4.2 pts. 4.2 points more Republican | 47,110 | >95% |
| Northumberland | Trump +40 | 1.4 pts. 1.4 points more Republican | 43,522 | >95% |
| Crawford | Trump +39 | 2 pts. 2 points more Republican | 42,872 | >95% |
| Indiana | Trump +39 | 1.6 pts. 1.6 points more Republican | 42,229 | >95% |
| Somerset | Trump +57 | 1 pt. 1 point more Republican | 40,881 | >95% |
| Clearfield | Trump +52 | 2 pts. 2 points more Republican | 40,430 | >95% |
| Armstrong | Trump +53 | 0.9 pts. 0.9 points more Republican | 37,119 | >95% |
| Carbon | Trump +35 | 2.8 pts. 2.8 points more Republican | 35,395 | >95% |
| Pike | Trump +24 | 5 pts. 5 points more Republican | 34,950 | >95% |
| Columbia | Trump +31 | 0.4 pts. 0.4 points more Republican | 32,600 | >95% |
| Bradford | Trump +48 | 3 pts. 3 points more Republican | 31,192 | >95% |
| Wayne | Trump +37 | 3.5 pts. 3.5 points more Republican | 29,444 | >95% |
| Bedford | Trump +69 | 1 pt. 1 point more Republican | 28,160 | >95% |
| Venango | Trump +42 | 0.7 pts. 0.7 points more Republican | 26,743 | >95% |
| Perry | Trump +49 | 0.7 pts. 0.7 points more Democratic | 25,725 | >95% |
| Huntingdon | Trump +53 | 2 pts. 2 points more Republican | 23,156 | >95% |
| Jefferson | Trump +58 | 0.4 pts. 0.4 points more Democratic | 23,129 | >95% |
| Susquehanna | Trump +45 | 3.5 pts. 3.5 points more Republican | 22,404 | >95% |
| Mifflin | Trump +56 | 0.3 pts. 0.3 points more Republican | 22,071 | >95% |
| Tioga | Trump +52 | 0.6 pts. 0.6 points more Republican | 21,587 | >95% |
| Union | Trump +23 | 0.9 pts. 0.9 points more Democratic | 21,187 | >95% |
| Warren | Trump +39 | 0.3 pts. 0.3 points more Democratic | 20,703 | >95% |
| Snyder | Trump +47 | 0.4 pts. 0.4 points more Democratic | 20,038 | >95% |
| Clarion | Trump +53 | 2.3 pts. 2.3 points more Republican | 19,731 | >95% |
| McKean | Trump +47 | 1 pt. 1 point more Republican | 19,682 | >95% |
| Clinton | Trump +41 | 4.6 pts. 4.6 points more Republican | 18,522 | >95% |
| Greene | Trump +45 | 1.4 pts. 1.4 points more Republican | 17,236 | >95% |
| Elk | Trump +47 | 1.9 pts. 1.9 points more Republican | 17,153 | >95% |
| Wyoming | Trump +37 | 1.6 pts. 1.6 points more Republican | 15,052 | >95% |
| Juniata | Trump +61 | <0.1 pts. <0.1 points more Democratic | 12,104 | >95% |
| Montour | Trump +21 | 0.2 pts. 0.2 points more Democratic | 9,908 | >95% |
| Potter | Trump +62 | 1.5 pts. 1.5 points more Republican | 9,085 | >95% |
| Fulton | Trump +73 | 0.7 pts. 0.7 points more Republican | 8,177 | >95% |
| Sullivan | Trump +47 | 0.3 pts. 0.3 points more Democratic | 3,721 | >95% |
| Forest | Trump +44 | 0.8 pts. 0.8 points more Republican | 2,650 | >95% |
| Cameron | Trump +50 | 3.6 pts. 3.6 points more Republican | 2,219 | >95% |
Shift in margin
More Dem.
More Rep.
Compared with 2020 presidential vote in places that have reported almost all of their votes.
We stopped updating these forecasts at 5:45 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 6, after the election was called for Donald Trump. These graphics and estimates will no longer be updated.
Live Pennsylvania forecast
Donald J. Trump has won Pennsylvania.
Last updated at 5:38 A.M. ET
Chance of winning
Trump wins
Estimated margin
Trump +2.1
Trump +1.4 to Trump +3
Live Pennsylvania forecast
Donald J. Trump has won Pennsylvania.
Last updated at 5:38 A.M. ET
Chance of winning
Trump wins
Estimated margin
Trump +2.1
Trump +1.4 to Trump +3
Estimate of the final margin over time
The lines below show how the reported margin compares with our estimate of the final margin, which includes a shaded range of our model’s uncertainty. As more votes are counted, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow.
Estimated margin
Best guess
50% of outcomes
95%
NYT estimate Reported vote share
Chance of winning over time
Share of expected turnout reported
What’s powering our forecast right now?
Our live forecast makes use of three indicators in creating an estimate of the final result.
| Indicator | Weight in current live forecast |
|---|---|
Pre-election polls At the start of the night, our estimate is based on pre-election polls, past election results and demographic data. | 1% |
Our model As votes come in, we compare actual results to our pre-election estimates to create a statistical model of the remaining vote. | 8% |
Actual results As a county reports more votes, these tabulated results will gradually supersede our previous estimates. | 91% |
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