Tasmania is entirely bird flu free.
Sandwiched between outbreaks in Victoria to its north and Antarctica to its south, for some it's a matter of when and not if.
"Be alert, but not alarmed, practice good biosecurity to the extent that it's possible, particularly with respect to trying to exclude wild birds contact with your kept birds or your commercial birds," Biosecurity Tasmania's chief veterinary officer Kevin de Witte said.
He also urged farmers and other bird keepers to monitor their birds for any sickness and deaths.
"We recognise it as a risk," he said.
While the Victorian outbreak has seen 500,000 commercial chickens euthanised to try to contain the spread, it's the different Antarctic variant, termed the H5N1 strain,that scientists are most worried about.
Uncertainty over movement of Antarctic strain
Dr Michelle Wille, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Pathogenetics at Melbourne University is one of those scientists worried about the Antarctic strain.
"It's found everywhere in the world except Oceania," Dr Wille said.
Scientists believe the immediate risk to Australian birds is more likely to be from the north (Asia) rather than Antarctica.
However, Dr Wille said there was uncertainty about how the Antarctic outbreak would move.
"I think the key thing here is we've identified some potential pathways, but there's a lot of uncertainty around these," she added.
Tasmania's chief vet agrees.
"We're fortunate that in Australia and New Zealand and our associated islands that we are the last place on the globe that has not experienced that virus," said Dr de Witte.
"It's not really possible to say when it might get here but we are conducting planning and preparation for that event if it does occur."
According to scientists the biggest risk is likely spring migration of infected seabirds from Antarctica to the northern hemisphere.
"Birds are capable of making long distance travel whilst incubating the virus," he said.
An early warning is likely to be infections on sub–Antarctic Islands in the flyway path, like Macquarie Island.
Local producers told to be 'extra vigilant'
Pure Eggs in Longford has a lot to lose, with 200,000 chickens producing on average 80,000 dozen eggs per week, every week.
"It's a huge concern, the impact on the industry would be significant," Pure Eggs business manager, Dan Ryan said.
The egg producing business already has strict biosecurity measures, but staff have been told to be extra vigilant.
"We sanitise the drinking water for our hens, we make sure we have strict protocols in place around who enters our ranges, and we make sure our team is trained in biosecurity," Mr Ryan said.
Bird flu is commonly transmitted from wild birds and bird droppings, and there's a big emphasis at Pure Eggs on keeping wild birds away from chicken flocks.
The commercial egg producer is counting on tough biosecurity measures to keep avian influenza at bay.
"We put a fair bit of effort to make sure that team are fully aware of what best process and best practice looks like and also what are those identifiable symptoms that we might see if there was an early onset or an onset of avian influenza so that we can act promptly and swiftly if required," he added.
Concerns within poultry industry
Chicken breeders, like Mark Robertson, are worried.
"We are nervous and quite vigilant and aware of what's going on around us," he said.
The passionate chicken shower is planning to take his prize birds to the upcoming Royal Canberra Poultry Show in June, but the thought of losing two decades of breeding and genetics has him constantly reassessing the trip.
"There's people coming from all around Australia, to Canberra to show their chickens," he said
It's expected more than 3,500 chickens and ducks with their owners will descend on the national capital.
"It'd be absolutely devastating if we were to have had an outbreak, the thought of losing what you've been a custodian of, would be really, really upsetting.
"We're very much under the direction of the authorities," he added.
Wild outbreak difficult to control
In the meantime, Dr Kevin de Witte said the state is in preparation mode.
If it hits the commercial sector a "stamping out program" will be conducted to try to contain the virus.
But an outbreak in wildlife will be virtually impossible to control and will be difficult to keep the virus from kept birds Dr de Witte said.
That includes everything from budgies to racing pigeons, backyard chickens and endangered species programs like the Orange Bellied Parrots who are also at risk.
"It leaves us with very little that we can do for kept birds other than to request that people follow biosecurity measures and try and prevent the virus from entering into their birds in the first place," he said.
Prevention will be their saviour.
Dr Wille said in the meantime the consumer would eventually feel the ramifications.
In 2022, more than 100 million chickens were killed across five continents in response to the avian influenza outbreaks.
"It's a huge cost to farmers, it affects consumers and egg prices," she said.
And it has not stopped with poultry.
"This strain of bird flu has actually infected more than 50 species of mammals, it's extraordinary," she said.
"Given it has impacted all these different mammal species, of course, humans are at risk too."
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