Attacks in Russia's Muslim majority republic of Dagestan are the latest strikes in the country linked to Islamic State. One security analyst told Newsweek that the Kremlin's focus on Ukraine rather than the threat of terrorism means more such incidents are guaranteed.
Russia's authorities announced a counterterrorism operation after men opened fire on Russian Orthodox churches and a synagogue in the coastal city of Derbent at around 6 p.m. Sunday. Within the same hour, another group opened fire on a traffic police post in the republic's capital of Makhachkala, about 80 miles north.
"Putin's quickly losing control of the country," posted pro-Ukrainian X user War is Translated, who writes about the Russian president's invasion, next to video of the aftermath of the attacks. Newsweek has contacted Russia's Investigative Committee for comment.
Dagestani governor Sergei Melikov said more than 15 police officers, several civilians and an Orthodox priest had been killed, although six "bandits" had been "liquidated."
The Russian branch of IS-K's (Islamic State Khorasan Province) Al-Azaim Media praised the attack, which it said was carried out by "their brothers from the Caucasus" without claiming responsibility.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the wording of the social-media post suggested that Wilayat Kavkaz, the Islamic State's Northern Caucasus branch, was "likely" responsible, although this has not been confirmed by Russian authorities.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Chinese and Russian-led group of Eurasian countries, previously said that Wilayat Kavkaz had become more active since the IS-K attacks on March 22 at Moscow's Crocus City Hall that killed 145 people.
Last week, police in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don killed several men, some of whom linked to IS, who had taken personnel hostage at a pretrial detention center.
Harold Chambers, a North Caucasus security analyst, told Newsweek that the attempted jail break last week and Sunday's attacks in Dagestan showed how Russia's security services are outmatched by militants—particularly IS.
"The demands of the invasion of Ukraine have distracted all security agencies in the country, while regions closer to the front line are more subject to wartime manpower demands," Chambers said.
He added that Sunday's attacks, which included the first strike on a church in Dagestan for years, "showed a return to hitting soft targets."
"This is important because, contrasting with the synagogue attack that could be understood in the same violent emotion as last year's storming of Uytash International Airport, it seemingly harkens a return to targeting according to international terrorist objectives," Chambers said. Anti-Israeli protesters broke into an airport in Makhachkala last October and searched for a planeload of passengers who had arrived from Tel Aviv.
In an emailed statement to Newsweek, Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt, the exiled chief rabbi of Moscow, said the attacks on Jewish and Russian Orthodox communities were of great concern.
"Reports that ISIS is responsible for this heinous attack is once again proof that Russian law enforcement authorities, instead of using their resources to fight ISIS and terrorism, have abused their resources to repress and kill peaceful citizens who were against the war," added Goldschmidt's statement, which was also shared on social media.
Chambers said how the profiles of the attackers on Sunday were more middle to upper class rather "than the more downtrodden individuals expected to be prone to jihadi violence." Greater financial means were apparent in the attack, which used higher-quality trafficked firearms.
"Other signifiers such as IEDs (improvised explosive devices), which have been present with every other IS cell in the region in recent months, were absent from this attack," said Chambers, a Ph.D. student at Indiana University.
The connection of Sunday's attacks to Wilayat Kavkaz remains unknown, with only IS Khorasan Province (IS-K)-aligned media claiming a semblance of responsibility through inspiring the attack.
IS has targeted Russia, although Moscow's main intelligence agency the FSB has shifted its focus to the war in Ukraine started by Vladimir Putin. Kremlin propagandists tried to link the Crocus attacks in March to Kyiv, claims widely dismissed by the international community.
Some Russian officials are already claiming without evidence that Ukraine and NATO are involved in Sunday's attack. The ISW said it showed Moscow's counterterrorism approach is likely to continue with "rhetorical posturing against Ukraine and the West" rather than neutralizing IS threats within Russia.
Adding to tensions in the region, a deadly shootout took place in the breakaway Georgian territory of Abkhazia, near its border with Russia. At least one person was killed and three others wounded in the shooting in the republic, although there is so far no reported link between the incident and what happened in Dagestan.
"Torn between a war it started and a legitimate security threat, the Kremlin continues to choose the former," Chambers said, and that, even before Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion, Russian authorities have not built a sufficient counterterrorism strategy.
"These facts guarantee the threat will persist," Chambers added, saying that the chances of further attacks are "all but guaranteed."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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